India's federal elections that gave the Congress Party-led
coalition a renewed mandate to govern the country for another term will
speed up agriculture reforms in the country and bring clarity to a host
of issues awaiting policy decisions, industry participants said Monday.
Topmost among them are key decisions on removing the export ban on several commodities, including wheat and rice.
Trade Secretary G.K. Pillai last week said wheat exports of up to 2
million tons by private companies would be allowed after a new
government took office.
The reelection of the governing coalition with a stronger mandate
will ensure there are no hitches to formalization of that order,
traders said. A new federal cabinet is expected to assume office before
June 15.
The government is initially expected to allow private traders to
exports 2 million tons of wheat before lifting the export ban
completely.
"The policy decision on allowing wheat exports by private trade will
now definitely come through," said Veena Sharma, joint secretary of the
Roller Flour Millers' Federation of India.
In a significant move, the Forward Markets Commission, India's
commodity futures market regulator, Friday lifted the ban on wheat
futures trading in the country after a two-year halt, indicating more
measures are on the way.
The federal government had suspended futures trading in wheat, rice
and some pulses in early 2007, blaming speculators for the sharp rise
in local commodity prices at that time.
While some government officials have ruled out subsidizing wheat exports, traders say even that can't be ruled out.
"In fact, the way government procurement is (progressing, the
government) might give a subsidy for wheat exports," Sharma said,
adding local prices are still higher than global prices, making exports
difficult without subsidies.
The state-run Food Corporation of India has bought 22.69 million
metric tons of wheat from farmers between April 1 and May 17,
surpassing the figure of 22.60 million tons for the entire 2007-08
marketing year.
Such high levels of state procurement is making it difficult for FCI and other agencies to store the newly procured wheat.
The federal government had been considering a removal of the export
ban even before the polls, but had deferred a decision fearing a
possible backlash from voters and some leftist political parties at
whose insistence the ban was put in place.
The ban on export of non-basmati rice is also likely to be scrapped,
though the decision on wheat is expected to come first, industry
officials said.
"Lifting the ban on rice exports will be government's top priority
now. Once the cabinet is formed, we can expect a quick decision on
that," said Gurnam Arora, joint managing director of Kohinoor Foods, a
leading rice exporter.
He said the ban could be lifted by the end of June.
"Once the ban is lifted, we can see exports of 3 million-4 million
tons of non-basmati rice this financial year," Mr. Arora said.
With the government's food grain stocks bursting at the seams,
authorities will need to act quickly to offload old stocks as soon as
possible, he said.
The industry is also expecting a quick decision on allowing private traders to import of white sugar at zero duty.
Earlier this year, the government had relaxed import norms to allow state-run companies to import white sugar at zero duty.
In a sign that private traders may get the same rights, federal
policy makers last week decided to slash the combined duty-free white
sugar import quota for state-run trading companies to 200,000 tons,
from the original allocation of a million tons.
The remaining quota of 800,000 tons is now expected to be allocated to private importers.
"We are expecting the government to extend the period for duty-free
import of raw sugar till Dec. 31," said Vinay Kumar, managing director
of National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories Ltd.
The relaxed norms for import of raw sugar is valid till September 30, while those on white sugar is effective till Aug.1.
So far, India has mostly imported raw sugar, as higher global prices have made white sugar imports difficult.
Traders said the return of the Congress Party government has also
ended speculation on whether a new federal government may ban futures
trading in sugar, after prices surged earlier this year.
Although the previous government had said there was no move to ban
trading, opposition parties had demanded a ban, arguing speculators
were fueling the rally in sugar prices.
Market participants are now optimistic the role of the commodity
markets regulator will be strengthened, as a legislation for this was
already in the pipeline.
Such a move could lead to a quickly revival of the derivatives market in the country.
A bill to amend the Forward Contract Regulation Act (FCRA) was
introduced in the parliament last year, but it couldn't be passed
because of political opposition from some groups.
"We hope the (FCRA) amendment will be expedited and it is very
necessary at this stage to strengthen the regulator," said Rajeev
Agarwal, a member of Forward Markets Commission.
Amending FCRA would provide autonomy to FMC, along the lines of the
power enjoyed by the Securities and Exchange Board of India, the
country's stock market regulator. It will allow FMC to punish errant
market intermediaries and introduce options trading in commodities.
Write to Arpan Mukherjee at arpan.mukherjee@dowjones.com, Swansy Afonso at swansy.afonso@dowjones.com and Debiprasad Nayak at debi.nayak@dowjones.com